Having failed to plan for the success of the stay at home order, California must now plan for the poverty pandemic and other crises that will soon follow. History will not be kind to government at any level for its inaction in the face of COVID-19 during February 2020. Sadly, we have squandered our time in ...

The statewide stay at home order has more than served its intended purpose. We now have more than two weeks of official data to assess the effectiveness of the extraordinary statewide stay at home order issued by Governor Newsom. The express purpose of the order was to flatten the daily hospital admission curve at a point ...

County officials need to take the lead on addressing the Governor’s six indicators and transitioning out of the COVID-19 statewide stay at home order. On Tuesday, Governor Newsom released a planning framework for gradually replacing the statewide stay at home order with less disruptive public health measures. He acknowledged that the collateral costs of the stay ...

Brian Goebel was interviewed live via Zoom yesterday by Noozhawk Founder Bill Macfadyen.  The interview covered the trajectory of COVID-19 in California, Brian's modeling efforts to date, and the key lessons learned that should guide public health efforts during the next phase of the pandemic.  You can watch the full interview on our Facebook Page.

I have received several emails and comments in response to my Posts asking for me to provide a link to the statistics I am using to calculate the trajectory of the virus in California. All of my California statistics are taken from the official daily releases issued by the California Department of Public Health.  You can ...

Having previously examined the downward bend in California's statewide hospital admissions curve, I decided to perform a similar analysis for my community - Santa Barbara County. The County recorded its first hospital admission much later in the pandemic than many other parts of the State. As a result, the data cover the period of March ...

It’s time for the State to change course as well by re-empowering our local governments to take the lead in protecting public health. On April 8th, I wrote that that the COVID-19 hospitalization data pointed to a bent curve. Just three days later, the data tell us the statewide curve was flattened days ago and is ...

On April 5th, I wrote that that the COVID-19 fatality and other data reported by the California Department of Public Health since the inception of the outbreak had demonstrated that California had flattened its COVID-19 curve in March. Just two days later, the data I was waiting to see have now revealed that the curve ...