• Ronald Doctors.
    April 3, 2020

    The world wide rate of change in the death rate started a decline about March 26th. This matches your predictions. I do see a major difference in NY and Ca patterns. Puzzled why LA hasnt had an explosive breakout like NY. I also wonder too about Mexico’s pattern since I would think it would be like Italy or Spain.
    Your comments are much appreciated.

    • Brian Goebel
      April 5, 2020

      These are insightful questions. I have not followed Mexico’s pattern, so I cannot comment on their trajectory. However, I believe the differences between LA and NYC, narrowly, and CA and the rest of the US, more broadly, can be partially explained by demographics (CA is relatively young and healthy and our smoking rates are among the lowest in the U.S. and far lower that Europe, for example). The WHO has recently acknowledged that smoking may be one of the strongest predictors for hospitalization rates (a possibility I raised many days ago). In addition, despite its population, LA lacks the density of NYC and is far less dependent on mass transit. I suspect epidemiologists will explore the significance of these differences when they study the trajectory of this pandemic in various locations. Thank you for your comment.

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