7 Comments
  • BGL
    April 12, 2020

    We do not have adequate testing infrastructure. These DIY finger prick kits are unreliable and not recommended by the CDC. Your idea is premature and will likely lead to increased deaths.

    • Brian Goebel
      April 16, 2020

      Thank you for your comment. As I wrote today, I believe the keys for testing are (1) testing every symptomatic person in a timely manner and (2) developing random sampling programs at the County level. With well-designed sampling, we do not need substantial testing volume to accurately assess the extent and trajectory of the pandemic. I am confident that we can deploy accurate tests as part of this sampling effort.

    • Brian Goebel
      April 21, 2020

      Thank you for your comment. I believe we have adequate testing infrastructure to begin a transition to a set of more carefully-crafted public health measures, as I discussed in my Post: “Governor Newsom’s Call to Action for California’s Counties.”

  • Steve Ferry
    April 12, 2020

    I take issue with your statement, “It is equally clear that there is no “sneaker wave” of hospitalizations building in the statewide data, as some have claimed (without supporting data or precedent).” I would argue that there is no sneaker wave (yet) precisely because we have continued social distancing measures. As far as precedents go, data from the 1918 pandemic show that many cities ended their quarantine measures too early and that a second rash of infections occurred when they did.
    You are probably familiar with the 1918 data. Please explain how reducing social distancing now would be a good idea when doing so in 1918 resulted in an increase in infections.

    • Brian Goebel
      April 16, 2020

      Thank you for your comment. To be clear, my position is that there is no “sneaker wave” building in the data with the stay at home order in place. The Governor essentially acknowledged this on Tuesday when he set forth his plan for transitioning out of the stay at home order. I also believe that well designed public health measures at the local level going forward will prevent such a wave from arising in the next phase of the pandemic.

  • Rob
    April 12, 2020

    Hopefully our governor will get the message and move away from increasing control. There appears to be a rush to provide another stimulus package but to do that we need a continued crisis. Unfortunately the last stimulus had more unrelated COVID measures that targeted our freedoms, there are indications the next one is worse.

    Thanks for the good journalism,

    Rob

    • Brian Goebel
      April 16, 2020

      Thank you for your comment. I believe we are slowly moving in the right direction given the Governor’s announcement on Tuesday. As I wrote today, if Counties take the lead, I believe certain locations will be able to transition out of the stay at home order even earlier.

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