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Repairing the American Dream for Younger Americans Before it is Too Late

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Civic Engagement

Brian Goebel Discusses COVID-19 Modeling with Noozhawk

By Brian Goebel
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 Civic Engagement, Public Policy and Administration

Brian Goebel was interviewed live via Zoom yesterday by Noozhawk Founder Bill Macfadyen.  The interview covered the trajectory of COVID-19 in California, Brian's modeling efforts to date, and the key lessons learned that should guide public health efforts during the next phase of the pandemic.  You can watch the full interview on our Facebook Page.

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Where can I find California’s Official COVID-19 Statistics?

By Brian Goebel
Monday, April 13, 2020 Civic Engagement, Public Policy and Administration

I have received several emails and comments in response to my Posts asking for me to provide a link to the statistics I am using to calculate the trajectory of the virus in California. All of my California statistics are taken from the official daily releases issued by the California Department of Public Health.  You can ...

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Santa Barbara County’s COVID-19 Hospitalization Numbers have been Low and Steady

By Brian Goebel
Sunday, April 12, 2020 Civic Engagement, Public Policy and Administration

Having previously examined the downward bend in California's statewide hospital admissions curve, I decided to perform a similar analysis for my community - Santa Barbara County. The County recorded its first hospital admission much later in the pandemic than many other parts of the State. As a result, the data cover the period of March ...

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California’s COVID-19 Hospitalization Curve is Completely Bent

By Brian Goebel
Saturday, April 11, 2020 Civic Engagement, Public Policy and Administration

It’s time for the State to change course as well by re-empowering our local governments to take the lead in protecting public health. On April 8th, I wrote that that the COVID-19 hospitalization data pointed to a bent curve. Just three days later, the data tell us the statewide curve was flattened days ago and is ...

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Current Data Point to Bent COVID-19 Curve in California

By Brian Goebel
Wednesday, April 8, 2020 Civic Engagement, Public Policy and Administration

On April 5th, I wrote that that the COVID-19 fatality and other data reported by the California Department of Public Health since the inception of the outbreak had demonstrated that California had flattened its COVID-19 curve in March. Just two days later, the data I was waiting to see have now revealed that the curve ...

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Measuring COVID-19 Model Performance

By Brian Goebel
Sunday, April 5, 2020 Civic Engagement, Public Policy and Administration

The chart below compares the predictions made in Models 1.0, 3.0, and 3.1 to the actual trajectory of the COVID-19 virus in California based on confirmed and suspected COVID-19 hospitalizations (i.e., bed count) as reported by the State at the end of each day. Please note:  The State began reporting this data on March 30th. Conclusions as ...

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California Healthcare Capacity – COVID-19 Model 3.1

By Brian Goebel
Sunday, April 5, 2020 Civic Engagement, Public Policy and Administration

California has substantially more healthcare capacity than necessary to manage the pandemic under the stay at home order. I have updated Model 3.0 to Model 3.1. Key Findings: Daily new confirmed cases will peak in the State data from April 4th to April 6th. Hospitalizations will peak between April 6th and April 11th. From that point forward, ...

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California Substantially Flattened the COVID-19 Curve in March

By Brian Goebel
Sunday, April 5, 2020 Civic Engagement, Public Policy and Administration

Note: This Post has been revised since its initial publication in response to reader questions and comments. As I have written previously, many in the media and the government often fail to present and interpret data correctly. With very few exceptions, such as the careful reporting by a handful of reporters at the LA Times ...

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Why 2040 Matters

Today, civic engagement is at record lows. Partisanship and polarization are leading us down the primrose path to a less prosperous, secure, and civil country. It is time for Generation X+ to trade apathy for action and force our elected leaders to debate and solve the biggest problems facing the country and casting an increasingly long shadow over our children's future.

2040Matters.com identifies and advocates for solutions to the most significant challenges facing Generation X+ over the next 25 years – challenges undermining our security, prosperity, quality of life, and commitments to our children. You can help us make a difference. Start today by adding your voice to those calling for the government to repair the American Dream for younger Americans before it is too late.

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