2040 MATTERS

Having previously examined the downward bend in California's statewide hospital admissions curve, I decided to perform a similar analysis for my community - Santa Barbara County. The County recorded its first hospital admission much later in the pandemic than many other parts of the State. As a result, the data cover the period of March ...

It’s time for the State to change course as well by re-empowering our local governments to take the lead in protecting public health. On April 8th, I wrote that that the COVID-19 hospitalization data pointed to a bent curve. Just three days later, the data tell us the statewide curve was flattened days ago and is ...

On April 5th, I wrote that that the COVID-19 fatality and other data reported by the California Department of Public Health since the inception of the outbreak had demonstrated that California had flattened its COVID-19 curve in March. Just two days later, the data I was waiting to see have now revealed that the curve ...

The chart below compares the predictions made in Models 1.0, 3.0, and 3.1 to the actual trajectory of the COVID-19 virus in California based on confirmed and suspected COVID-19 hospitalizations (i.e., bed count) as reported by the State at the end of each day. Please note:  The State began reporting this data on March 30th. Conclusions as ...

California has substantially more healthcare capacity than necessary to manage the pandemic under the stay at home order. I have updated Model 3.0 to Model 3.1. Key Findings: Daily new confirmed cases will peak in the State data from April 4th to April 6th. Hospitalizations will peak between April 6th and April 11th. From that point forward, ...

Note: This Post has been revised since its initial publication in response to reader questions and comments. As I have written previously, many in the media and the government often fail to present and interpret data correctly. With very few exceptions, such as the careful reporting by a handful of reporters at the LA Times ...

On our current trajectory, California has more than an adequate number of hospital beds to withstand the pandemic. This Post outlines the revisions in methodology that constitute my Model 3.0 for predicting the number of hospital beds California requires to manage the COVID-19 outbreak. (I developed a Model 2.0 earlier this week, but it immediately became ...

Italy's success likely foreshadows California's Italy's Success! There was another blockbuster positive development in the trajectory of COVID-19 today. Like other good news stories over the past two weeks, this one sadly received little attention: Italy is increasingly confident that it has flattened its curve. As the Wall Street Journal reported today, the Italian government has started studying ...