The statewide stay at home order has more than served its intended purpose.
We now have more than two weeks of official data to assess the effectiveness of the extraordinary statewide stay at home order issued by Governor Newsom. The express purpose of the order was to flatten the daily hospital admission curve at a point where our healthcare system could continuously provide the highest quality care to all COVID-19 and other patients. Have we done it?
Yes. On April 8th, I wrote that the official State data pointed to a bent curve – hospitalizations were in decline. On April 11th, I wrote that the data confirmed my prior view – the curve had clearly been bent. At that time, I wrote that I expected to see a continuous, but bumpy, deceleration in the virus. How have my two prior analyses fared in light of another week of State data? They were “spot on.” Here is the updated statewide hospitalization curve, which has continued its dramatic downward trajectory:
Let’s hope the “third time is the charm” for a demonstrably bent curve to make a difference in the course being charted by our elected officials. The data clearly reveal that the statewide stay at home order has more than achieved its intended purpose. If we are, as we claim to be, a State that is guided by data and science, then now is the time to transition into the next phase of the pandemic, during which “localism” will be “determinative” according to our Governor. The data show that the State is clearly ready to pass the baton. Our Counties need to take it.
Be safe. Stay healthy.